The special election to fill Kirsten Gillibrand's House seat in NY-20 is now in the absentee ballot phase. I analyzed the numbers a bit today and am throwing out a prediction that, if all of the mailed absentee ballots are returned, Jim Tedisco (the Republican) will win by about 600 votes. This is based on Tedisco's current 97-vote lead, the Republican advantage in absentee ballot registration, and my estimate of a 60/40 breakdown in independets' absentee ballots in favor of the Democrat, Scott Murphy. We probably won't know the results until at least April 13th, the deadline for military absentee ballots to arrive.
Update: Well, I was way off. The absentee ballots broke significantly in favor of Scott Murphy and Jim Tedisco conceded the race on Friday. This just goes to show that such close elections are very difficult to predict. It was interesting to follow regardless.
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